La Liga Picks - 28 Feb 2010

Another busy week for Spanish teams at the business end of European football, once again proving just what a force La Liga is. Valencia and Athletic Madrid progressed to the quarter-finals of the Europa League – the former rather comfortably and the latter by the skin of their teeth - while Barcelona and Seville both set themselves up nicely for their home return legs in the Champions League. Athletic Bilbao are out of the Europa League after being crushed 4-0 at Anderlecht; Villareal were dumped out of the same competition after losing 6-3 to Wolfsburg on aggregate. More on the Yellow Submarines later.

Not surprisingly, there are some big handicaps on offer against Barcelona and Real Madrid given their continued dominance at the top of the table. Real start 1 ½ goals down away to Tenerife, while Barca are giving away a whopping 2 ¼ goal handicap at home to Malaga. While both handicaps are very large, the prices seem about right given the top clubs’ superlative form and freescoring goal records. Instead, let’s concentrate our attention on a couple of less-talked about games, both of which provide us with betting value.

Racing Santander vs Almeria

Racing lost their last home game 3-0 to mid-table Malaga. They then followed that up last week by a 4-0 defeat at the Nou Camp. Of course there is no shame in getting soundly beaten by Barca – possibly the best team in the world – but that’s seven goals against and none for in their last two league outings. They’ve also only won two games at home all season and have conceded twice as many at the El Sardinero as they have scored. It’s only their decent away form that’s keeping them out of the dropzone and manager Portugal’s job isn’t safe yet.

In contrast, their lower-table rivals Almeria are on a nice little run of results. They won at home to Athletic Madrid last week, drew 2-2 away to Getafe on Valentine’s Day, and have lost only one in their last eight (a 1-0 away defeat to high-flying Seville). The last time they faced Santander at the El Sardinero they won 2-0, and while I think a draw is more likely than an away win this time, I think the bookies have been too generous in giving Almeria a ¼ goal start at odds against. A small / medium bet is therefore recommended on the visitors.

Bet 2pts on Almeria at +1/4 goal (2.05) with Bet365.

[Almeria won 2-0]

Villareal vs Deportivo La Coruna

As mentioned earlier, Villareal crashed out of the Europa League in midweek, getting soundly thumped 4-1 by German club Wolfsburg. There’s no doubt it will be a bitter result for Garrido’s men to swallow, and given that the game was on Thursday it will be tough from them to physically and psychologically recover in time for Sunday’s game against Deportivo. Which is why I’m surprised they’re giving up ½ goal on the handicap. It’s not as if their recent form in La Liga has been anything to shout about anyway, having lost four of their last six games. The only thing you can say in their favour is that the Madrigal stadium brings out the best in them.

Their opponents, La Coruna, are far from the excellent side they were at the start of the season, but their recent form (3 wins, 4 draws, 3 defeats from their last 10 matches) isn’t so awful. They certainly have enough in the locker to hold a demoralised and tired Villareal to a draw on Sunday. A medium bet on Super Depo is therefore recommended.

Bet 3pts on Deportivo at +1/2 goal (1.90) with Stan James.

[Villareal won 1-0]